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Babaei, M, Rashidi-baqhi, A and Rashidi, M (2022) Estimating Project Cost under Uncertainty Using Universal Generating Function Method. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 148(02).

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords:
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0002233
  • Abstract:
    One of the important issues in project management is cost contingency estimation. Although this has been investigated in previous studies, the underlying assumptions on presuming specific probability distribution functions (like triangular and normal) for activity costs impose curve fitting preliminaries, which leads to approximation errors along with time inefficiency. This paper is sought to propose a fast and exact method to assess the risk of projects for any arbitrary probability mass function of activity costs obtained directly from historical data. The proposed method facilitates determination of cost contingency indicator curves that can help decision makers, planners, and contractors to select a reasonable contract value, and managing resources in predesign phase or during construction more efficiently. Our methodology consists of four main parts: (1) determining the universal generating function (UGF) of activity costs, (2) modeling the project network as a parallel multistate system, (3) determining the UGF of project cost, and (4) determining the probability mass function of project cost. The effectiveness of the proposed method is examined using sample projects, indicating that it is 5×105 times faster than Monte Carlo simulation in a 27-activity example, while the average costs obtained from the two methods is not different at a significance level of 0.0001. Moreover, the proposed method provides exact project cost probability distribution in discrete cases unlike Monte Carlo simulation, which does not have the ability to estimate extreme states, and, therefore, it can be a suitable substitution for Monte Carlo simulation.

Bai, S, Li, M, Lu, Q, Tian, H and Qin, L (2022) Global Time Optimization Method for Dredging Construction Cycles of Trailing Suction Hopper Dredger Based on Grey System Model. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 148(02).

Che Ibrahim, C K I, Belayutham, S, Mohammad, M Z and Ismail, S (2022) Development of a Conceptual Designer’s Knowledge, Skills, and Experience Index for Prevention through Design Practice in Construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 148(02).

Ghafoori, M and Abdallah, M (2022) Simulation-Based Optimization Model to Minimize Equivalent Annual Cost of Existing Buildings. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 148(02).

Jia, F, Xiang, P and Chen, D (2022) Prioritizing the Operation and Maintenance Complexity of Mega Transportation Projects Based on Systems Thinking. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 148(02).

Lerche, J, Enevoldsen, P and Seppänen, O (2022) Application of Takt and Kanban to Modular Wind Turbine Construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 148(02).

Li, P, Wang, Q, Guo, Z, Mei, T, Li, Q, Qiao, S and Zuo, W (2022) Identifying Falling-from-Height Hazards in Building Information Models: A Voxelization-Based Method. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 148(02).

Li, X, Lu, W, Xue, F, Wu, L, Zhao, R, Lou, J and Xu, J (2022) Blockchain-Enabled IoT-BIM Platform for Supply Chain Management in Modular Construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 148(02).

Liu, K, Su, Y, Pollack, J, Liang, H and Zhang, S (2022) Explaining the Formation Mechanism of Intrateam Knowledge Exchange Network in Offsite Construction Projects: A Social Cognitive Perspective. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 148(02).

Park, J and Cho, Y K (2022) Point Cloud Information Modeling: Deep Learning–Based Automated Information Modeling Framework for Point Cloud Data. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 148(02).

Radzi, A R, Rahman, R A, Doh, S I and Esa, M (2022) Construction Readiness for Highway Projects: Key Decision Criteria. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 148(02).

Sanboskani, H and Srour, I (2022) Using Advanced Statistical Methods to Identify the Drivers of Knowledge Sharing Intention among Construction Workers. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 148(02).

Shehadeh, A, Alshboul, O and Hamedat, O (2022) Risk Assessment Model for Optimal Gain–Pain Share Ratio in Target Cost Contract for Construction Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 148(02).

Yoon, J H and Pishdad-Bozorgi, P (2022) State-of-the-Art Review of Blockchain-Enabled Construction Supply Chain. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 148(02).

Zhang, C, Chen, K, Yang, J, Fu, J, Wang, S and Xie, Y (2022) Reuse of Discharged Soil from Slurry Shield Tunnel Construction as Synchronous Grouting Material. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 148(02).

Zhang, Y, Yuan, J, Zhao, J, Cheng, L and Li, Q (2022) Hybrid Dynamic Pricing Model for Transport PPP Projects during the Residual Concession Period. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 148(02).